A Celebration Society

Tag: disruption

  • Do AIs Need to Have Fun?

    Do AIs Need to Have Fun?

    The AI researcher Jurgen Schmidhuber has argued in a talk that there is a precise way to optimize a self-improving superintelligence based upon Godel’s mathematics. He further explained this in a paper audaciously named “Formal Theory of Creativity, Fun, and Intrinsic Motivation”.

    He says “The simple but general formal theory of fun & intrinsic motivation & creativity (1990-) is based on the concept of maximizing intrinsic reward for the active creation or discovery of novel, surprising patterns allowing for improved prediction or data compression … it has been argued that the theory explains many essential aspects of intelligence including autonomous development, science, art, music, humor. …

    He continues: “To build a creative agent that never stops generating non-trivial & novel & surprising data, we need two learning modules: (1) an adaptive predictor or compressor or model of the growing data history as the agent is interacting with its environment and (2) as a general reinforcement learner. The learning progress of (1) is the fun or intrinsic reward of (2). That is, (2) is motivated to invent things that (1) does not yet know but can easily learn. … some of the AGIs based on the creativity principle will become scientists, artists, or comedians.”

    Who would ever have imagined that AI’s might need to have fun? And yet, why would self-directing intelligences of any sort otherwise bother with “thinking” beyond addressing their own survival issues?

    This is an entirely different view of AIs than the Terminator-type fears which dominate popular dystopian fiction. Yes, there are serious reasons to be concerned about the motivations of AIs and the possible threat they pose to humanity. But given adequate resources of matter and energy to maintain their thinking processes, AIs may just as well find us interesting–even fun–rather than something to extinguish or rule.

    In my view, humanity can assure a safe coexistence with AIs only by merging with them. While this prospect will be discomfiting to many, it need not be unpleasant. Done on an “opt in/opt out” basis, people will be able to augment our senses and intelligence as we now augment our bodies with machines such as cars.

    A Celebration Society comprised of “humans” in various expressions of humanity–both ordinary and AI enhanced–could be a wonderful tapestry of possibilities, far beyond our present imaginings.

  • First Social Disruption from Technological Unemployment–a Warning

    First Social Disruption from Technological Unemployment–a Warning

    Donald Trump’s ascendancy in politics is certainly disruptive. It probably wouldn’t be happening if large numbers of well-paying middle class jobs hadn’t been outsourced in recent years, either permanently lost or replaced by minimum wage jobs. The people to whom this has happened understandably feel frustrated and scared.

    What nobody has put together, at least that I have seen, is the understanding that outsourcing is a form of technological unemployment. Outsourcing wouldn’t be possible, certainly not on anything like the scale we’ve seen, without advanced technology:

    • Internet telephony has enabled companies to move customer service to third world nations
    • Distance learning and the non-physical nature of software work have enabled relocation of software jobs, with the work product available worldwide
    • Complex and automated supply chain management has made it possible to have different aspects of a production process in different countries, allowing manufacturers to use the nations with the cheapest labor

    If we don’t find a way to address the very real frustrations and fears of large populations of people, the Trump ascendancy will look like a mere warmup act to what comes in the 2020s. Desperate people will grab at any solution that’s offered, whether that solution seems rational or irrational to others who still enjoy comfort and safety. When your home and livelihood are threatened, anything new seems better than the status quo.

    Oxford and other researchers have forecast job losses in the United States and other developed countries in the range of 40%+, and job losses up to 85% in less developed countries. The highest unemployment levels reached during the Great Depression didn’t exceed 25%. Yet, even at those levels, the disruption was enough that Americans flirted with electing Huey Long, and Father Coughlin’s demagoguery was quite popular.

    Accelerating automation is the ultimate form of outsourcing. it will not be limited to a single nation, but will instead be a worldwide phenomenon. It will hit all nations like a tsunami in the 2020s. Also, unlike the Great Depression, this source of unemployment will not be curable by public works programs. The notion of massive “make work” programs will only insult and degrade those “workers”, who will quickly become painfully aware that they are being forced to do things that machines could do better and cheaper.

    Likewise, the various flavors of a guaranteed income, as commonly proposed, are seriously insufficient for reasons I have discussed elsewhere on these blogs, on Quora and elsewhere.

    Social disruption from technological unemployment is already upon us. We’d better heed the warning before things get ugly.